Ask HN: Vitalik says that QC might break ECC before 2028. This is crazy, right?
A Hacker News discussion thread prompted by Vitalik Buterin's suggestion that quantum computers could break elliptic-curve cryptography before 2028. The poster questions the plausibility, noting that current devices have not run Shor's algorithm on nontrivial numbers and that error correction remains the binding constraint, and links prior threads on Google's Willow, Microsoft's Majorana 1, and OpenSSH's post-quantum stance.
Why it matters: It reflects how aggressive cryptographically-relevant quantum timelines are being received outside the field, which shapes pressure on engineering teams to migrate to post-quantum algorithms.
Original abstract
Quantum computers haven't even factored a three-digit number yet, right? I don't have handy the equivalent in discrete log solution, but... even if somehow (??!) they gain the 4+ orders of magnitude for Shor's space computation, there remain major unsolved boring problems like error correction and cooling, right?<p>Or have there been some galaxy-shaking developments in QC that actually make this somehow plausible?<p>Some recent, relevant, major discussions I brushed-up on before posting this:<p>* Willow announcement: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42367649<p>* Majorana 1 announcement: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43104071<p>* OpenSSH statement: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44863242<p>* The case against Google's claims of "quantum supremacy": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42384768<p>edit: I do want to say, I like Vitalik a lot and I think he has a beautiful and friendly brain and heart; the few times I hung with him he has been cool as heck. This is not an anti-Vitalik post. More of a "where are we really in QC" post, which I figure some people here can summarize in fairly simple terms.